Document Type

Article

Publication Date

4-26-2026

Abstract

The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth, with surface air temperatures increasing at a rate nearly four times the global average.1 This amplification of global change has been reshaping the Arctic for decades, altering sea ice extent and thickness, snow regimes, permafrost stability, and hydrological systems. Against this backdrop, a persistent narrative has taken hold that the diminishing cryosphere2 is setting the table for opportunity: opening the Arctic to navigation, development, and exploitation. But this thaw renders the Arctic neither benign nor uniformly accessible. The region remains frozen for most of the year, dark for months at a time, increasingly storm-prone, and profoundly remote. Rather than producing a uniform expansion of access, accelerating climate change is reconfiguring when, where, and for whom access is possible, creating patterns of simultaneous opening and closing that are seasonal, uneven, and uncertain.

Publication Title

AJIL Unbound

Volume

120

Article Number

1176

First Page

169

Last Page

174

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